Political rambling about Russia/China
Jan. 14th, 2022 03:58 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
garoteThe two countries seem to have increasingly aligned interests. China is trying to engulf Taiwan, and Russia is trying to engulf Ukraine. What's the common strategy here?
It looks to me like the strategy is to exploit the badly regulated communications technology and dysfunctional government of the target country, astroturfing pro-Russian or pro-China support, then meanwhile find some thin excuse to build up military assets nearby. Wait for a particularly violent and confused election, then roll in the military assets, targeting the center of government and claiming that they are defending from a coup rather than staging one, since the country "voted" to join Russia/China.
Russia is in the midst of doing this to Ukraine and is beginning to target Kazakhstan with the same playbook. Next on the list is Georgia. Mongolia will remain a toothless buffer zone between Russia and China, but once Taiwan has been beaten into submission expect China to decisively eat North Korea - with almost zero resistance - as a prelude to their next move. Meanwhile they will continue to consolidate their ugly grip on their own populace, from east to west. I figure we've got about seven years for all this to play out.
So, what are the Western nations going to do about it?
It depends on how willing they are to stage a proxy war in any of these countries. Because once the civil unrest rises beyond a certain level, the only thing that's going to stop Russian tanks rolling in is the destruction of those Russian tanks before they roll in, with counterstrikes at or near the border, and a clear declaration that everyone is aware of what Russia is attempting to do. Destroying them after they roll in is going to turn a coup into an appalling slaughter, and Russia/China have already proven that they'll gladly incite such a situation by what they did by proxy in Syria. (Which everyone seems to have already forgotten about. That was fast.)
So are we ready for that? Is Western Europe going to build up and rattle its own sabre a bit in its defense? Or is it going to continue with its prideful economic slapfight, and ignore all external threats? Or is it going to continue to collectively sit on its hands and yelp for good ol' Johnny American to fly over with ballistic missiles and jets to blow up those Russian tanks? The US has very little to gain from such a move, and a lot to lose...
It looks to me like the strategy is to exploit the badly regulated communications technology and dysfunctional government of the target country, astroturfing pro-Russian or pro-China support, then meanwhile find some thin excuse to build up military assets nearby. Wait for a particularly violent and confused election, then roll in the military assets, targeting the center of government and claiming that they are defending from a coup rather than staging one, since the country "voted" to join Russia/China.
Russia is in the midst of doing this to Ukraine and is beginning to target Kazakhstan with the same playbook. Next on the list is Georgia. Mongolia will remain a toothless buffer zone between Russia and China, but once Taiwan has been beaten into submission expect China to decisively eat North Korea - with almost zero resistance - as a prelude to their next move. Meanwhile they will continue to consolidate their ugly grip on their own populace, from east to west. I figure we've got about seven years for all this to play out.So, what are the Western nations going to do about it?
It depends on how willing they are to stage a proxy war in any of these countries. Because once the civil unrest rises beyond a certain level, the only thing that's going to stop Russian tanks rolling in is the destruction of those Russian tanks before they roll in, with counterstrikes at or near the border, and a clear declaration that everyone is aware of what Russia is attempting to do. Destroying them after they roll in is going to turn a coup into an appalling slaughter, and Russia/China have already proven that they'll gladly incite such a situation by what they did by proxy in Syria. (Which everyone seems to have already forgotten about. That was fast.)
So are we ready for that? Is Western Europe going to build up and rattle its own sabre a bit in its defense? Or is it going to continue with its prideful economic slapfight, and ignore all external threats? Or is it going to continue to collectively sit on its hands and yelp for good ol' Johnny American to fly over with ballistic missiles and jets to blow up those Russian tanks? The US has very little to gain from such a move, and a lot to lose...
