COVID and testing and pods and whatnot
Dec. 21st, 2020 02:53 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
garoteOkay, here's what I've gleaned. Do correct me if you have any sources that contradict any of this.
People who are infectious and spreading the virus through breath inevitably get the particles jammed up in their nose from normal breathing. People can be infectious in this manner without symptoms in the early onset of the infection. The widest range for this stage appears to be 2 to 14 days. The easiest way to detect this is with a swab test.
There are at least three variations on the swab test. They're all designed to detect the virus particles themselves. The only difference between the three is the variation on the technology they use to detect and the pieces they look for. They all have an efficacy somewhere over 95 percent. They also employ a "false negative" mechanism that detects an improperly administered test. When I got tested last week, I was one of the lucky few (about one in 1000 at that site, according to the nurses I spoke to there) whose test came back "INVALID", and I had to turn around and drive back for a second test (which was negative.)
So if you have no symptoms, and you've recently done something risky (like hang around people you don't know for an hour outside, or around people you don't know for several minutes inside with or without a mask) and are wondering if you've been exposed and and are spreading the virus, get tested twice, a couple of days apart. If you get negative both times, there's only about a one in 400 chance that the cumulative result is wrong.
One of the safest ways to get tested that's available these days is to go to a drive-through outdoor testing site. (There's one in Simi Valley where my sister lives.) You book it online, then drive there alone, with the windows down if possible, and then a fully suited up nurse leans in the window and roto-roots your nostrils for about 25 seconds. Then you drive away. Typically you get the result in half an hour. The big drawback here is the cost: These tests range from about $75 to $400 each, depending on where you live, and there's a very high chance your medical insurance will cover the whole cost but you need to make sure. For example, the drive-through center in Fort Worth charged me $75 so I didn't even bother to check (I'm bourgeoisie that way) but the one in Simi Valley I went to last week wanted $175 and couldn't tell me whether it was covered. They did, however, give me a serial number I could hand off to the people at Stanford Medical that could probably be used to reimburse me.
The antibody test is something ENTIRELY DIFFERENT. It does not check for the virus itself. It is done by drawing blood.
The antibody test will go positive only if you have been exposed to COVID some time MORE THAN two weeks ago, and your immune system has done combat with it and learned how to destroy it. So it is actually pretty typical for a person to get positive on the antibody test and negative on the virus test.
For a long time there was no consensus on whether someone with antibodies could still be actively spreading the virus, and how long the antibodies lasted. Some clever research out of Iceland done in October and November has given clarity there: The antibodies persist for at least ten months (the largest window we provably have, since it's hard to find someone who had COVID more than 10 months ago) and probably significantly longer. And, the antibodies do seem to indicate that the person can no longer be a spreader.
All of this is why the Iceland government orders people to quarantine for about four days and get tested for virus twice before entering the country, but if they take an antibody test and have no symptoms AND the test is POSITIVE, they are admitted to the country almost immediately.
-;-;-
So, how would a collection of people gather together into a pod for a while?
Want some peace of mind? Get an antibody test. Regardless of whether you do that, look back over the last 3 or 4 days of your activity. If you've done anything risky, book a swab test and take it. If it's negative, keep NOT DOING anything risky until you're in your pod. To me, this means not interacting with strangers in an enclosed space for any interval longer than a couple of minutes, even if you're wearing a mask. (If you weren't wearing a mask, well ... What were you thinking? Get tested.) Be outdoors, or be in a place that you are the sole occupant of that has no shared ventilation with any other enclosed space.
When joining your pod, transport is the big risk issue. Here's the hacked-together list of guidelines I've been following for my several months of riding around the country:
People who are infectious and spreading the virus through breath inevitably get the particles jammed up in their nose from normal breathing. People can be infectious in this manner without symptoms in the early onset of the infection. The widest range for this stage appears to be 2 to 14 days. The easiest way to detect this is with a swab test.
There are at least three variations on the swab test. They're all designed to detect the virus particles themselves. The only difference between the three is the variation on the technology they use to detect and the pieces they look for. They all have an efficacy somewhere over 95 percent. They also employ a "false negative" mechanism that detects an improperly administered test. When I got tested last week, I was one of the lucky few (about one in 1000 at that site, according to the nurses I spoke to there) whose test came back "INVALID", and I had to turn around and drive back for a second test (which was negative.)
So if you have no symptoms, and you've recently done something risky (like hang around people you don't know for an hour outside, or around people you don't know for several minutes inside with or without a mask) and are wondering if you've been exposed and and are spreading the virus, get tested twice, a couple of days apart. If you get negative both times, there's only about a one in 400 chance that the cumulative result is wrong.
One of the safest ways to get tested that's available these days is to go to a drive-through outdoor testing site. (There's one in Simi Valley where my sister lives.) You book it online, then drive there alone, with the windows down if possible, and then a fully suited up nurse leans in the window and roto-roots your nostrils for about 25 seconds. Then you drive away. Typically you get the result in half an hour. The big drawback here is the cost: These tests range from about $75 to $400 each, depending on where you live, and there's a very high chance your medical insurance will cover the whole cost but you need to make sure. For example, the drive-through center in Fort Worth charged me $75 so I didn't even bother to check (I'm bourgeoisie that way) but the one in Simi Valley I went to last week wanted $175 and couldn't tell me whether it was covered. They did, however, give me a serial number I could hand off to the people at Stanford Medical that could probably be used to reimburse me.
The antibody test is something ENTIRELY DIFFERENT. It does not check for the virus itself. It is done by drawing blood.
The antibody test will go positive only if you have been exposed to COVID some time MORE THAN two weeks ago, and your immune system has done combat with it and learned how to destroy it. So it is actually pretty typical for a person to get positive on the antibody test and negative on the virus test.
For a long time there was no consensus on whether someone with antibodies could still be actively spreading the virus, and how long the antibodies lasted. Some clever research out of Iceland done in October and November has given clarity there: The antibodies persist for at least ten months (the largest window we provably have, since it's hard to find someone who had COVID more than 10 months ago) and probably significantly longer. And, the antibodies do seem to indicate that the person can no longer be a spreader.
All of this is why the Iceland government orders people to quarantine for about four days and get tested for virus twice before entering the country, but if they take an antibody test and have no symptoms AND the test is POSITIVE, they are admitted to the country almost immediately.
So, how would a collection of people gather together into a pod for a while?
Want some peace of mind? Get an antibody test. Regardless of whether you do that, look back over the last 3 or 4 days of your activity. If you've done anything risky, book a swab test and take it. If it's negative, keep NOT DOING anything risky until you're in your pod. To me, this means not interacting with strangers in an enclosed space for any interval longer than a couple of minutes, even if you're wearing a mask. (If you weren't wearing a mask, well ... What were you thinking? Get tested.) Be outdoors, or be in a place that you are the sole occupant of that has no shared ventilation with any other enclosed space.
When joining your pod, transport is the big risk issue. Here's the hacked-together list of guidelines I've been following for my several months of riding around the country:
- Want to drive your own car between point A and point B? That's fine. It's probably the safest thing you can do! But don't pick up any hitchhikers.
- Don't take a taxi, don't take a ride-share, or a Lyft, or Uber. Do not get on a bus, do not take Bart.
- If you can rent a horse, go with that. You can even french-kiss the horse if you like.
- Do not hug anyone outside your pod, goodbye or hello or even if you just want to cop a quick feel.
- Do not get within hand-shaking distance of anyone not in your pod, and for f%&#$'s sake don't shake hands.
- Even if it would be sooo convenient to have a bit to eat indoors, don't. Take the meal outside or take it back to your hotel room.
- Order food to-go, over the phone or by an app. If they don't deliver, call the restaurant and ask them to bring it outside to you when you arrive.
- Do not get into a train coach, though there is an exception here: If you proceed DIRECTLY to a single-occupancy suite with external forced air and a closable door, you are effectively about as safe as being alone in a hotel room with the windows open. DO NOT go to the dining car, and avoid the bathrooms too if you can.
- Renting a car is alright: The cars are wiped down between use and you are the only occupant. Roll down the windows anyway because, why not.
- When you're in a terminal - train, plane, etc - don't take off your properly worn mask for anything. Face to the side if you have to lean close to a plexiglass barrier or whatnot to be understood by a clerk. (Saw some interesting particle tracking experiments with an infra-red camera that covered this.)
- Do your best to hold your breath walking down the boarding chute onto a plane. That thing just sucks.
- When you get onto a plane, immediately adjust the air blower nozzles to point straight down onto your head. Then sit under them for the entire dang flight. Shut your eyes as much as you can. Eat nothing.
- If you see some Neandertal with his nose down over a mask, make eye contact and tap your nose. Glare at him like you want to cut his throat. If he doesn't get the clue, consider stabbing him with a harpoon.
