A three year old prediction about the Ukraine conflict

[garote]

In March of 2022 I made the following guess about the eventual outcome of Russia's Ukraine invasion:

Russia will blast Ukraine into powder, extract some concession like "we won't join NATO and those new republics are not part of Ukraine", then pull back into the republics, leaving them bristling with hardware for years. The Russian economy will burn low for a long while during which they will be at the mercy of the Chinese and whatever belt-and-road-style economic devil's bargain they care to name. Animosity between Europe and Russia, the US and Russia, will remain high for a decade, accomplishing nothing.

Ukraine will remain a depopulated ruin for at least that long. The EU will turn up its nose, sensing another debtor country like Greece. Putin will die or ""step down"" in something like five years, probably less, and his replacement will try and turn the page with the West, but without internal reforms the hands that are extended will all be those of the same old oligarchs and the Russian people will continue to be screwed for another generation, continue to be susceptible to jingoism and propaganda, and will lean even harder into the Chinese philosophy of governance: Not a government of, by, and for the people, but a people of, by, and for the government (by swordpoint if necessary).

This guess was mostly about stagnation. I figured the situation would not change for years, even as more people died and more hardware was thrown at both sides. This has come true, though there are some external consequences: NATO is re-arming and growing more independent, and Russia's ostensible allies are taking advantage of their economy being leveraged out over a financial abyss.

I set a limit of five years, which was a bit arbitrary, but I'm rolling with it. I think we're still headed for this state of affairs two years from now and there's only one thing that could realistically alter the course: Russia's economy going into a complete tailspin, before Putin's death.

If that happens, the Russian people might, maybe, get so sick of total war and sending their sons into a meat grinder that they strike Moscow hard enough to put a crack in the state oligarchy. But if I'm honest, this is unlikely. Never underestimate the capacity of Russian people to suffer.

Comments

[juan_gandhi]

I'm afraid you don't have enough understanding of all that. Ukraine is not a country of retards. Technically, scientifically, politically it is much more advanced than Russia. You can only compare it to Poland, France, and UK. Maybe Romania, it's restoring its scientific potential too. Russia is going back in time, wasting its resources, and using the fact that Europe, China, India are eager to buy its fuel while it's cheap. Russia has no future; Ukraine has a lot of future. This is the kind of people that drive Ukraine ahead, and, hopefully, they will win.

[garote]

I completely agree with you about Ukraine vs. Russia's future. I worry about the infrastructure damage of the war... All the missile attacks on buildings, roads, railroads, utilities, etc. All the people who are being killed, or had to move to Poland, etc. It's going to take time and work to rebuild. But yes, Ukraine is on the way up. Russia is on the way down, and when they hit bottom they'll start digging.

Russia will never annex or destroy Ukraine. But I think it's possible they would just keep bleeding Ukraine on the eastern side that the country would eventually accept the loss of some territory. I could be wrong though. Would they eventually push back and reclaim Crimea?

[juan_gandhi]

Well, yes. I'm really impressed by the heroism of the Ukrainians. I have a lot of Ukrainian friends (and hardly any Russian friends), and I did discuss it with them in the beginning. Now I know their attitude, and I would not give them an advice. Just donate when something (like a drone, or a pickup truck) is needed.

[lxe]

Very unfortunately, I have to agree. Russia has made Ukraine (some would say, forced Ukraine to, and some would say, provoked Ukraine to) centralize its own economy around and permeate its own society with central governance, both by direct decree and by "rallying around the flag".

Every Ukrainian in my circle, both near and far, has left Ukraine at some point.
Their opinions and forecasts differ, but all of them voted the same way with their feet.

[sassa_nf]

I think what you and others have missed, is that Russian mothers and wives do not mourn the loss: they profit from it. They literally send their sons and husbands to die, then get married again and send those to die too.

It's just business, nothing personal.